Quotient
Q, Quotient's AI forecaster, estimates event odds and flags where its numbers disagree with Polymarket and Kalshi prices.
Quotient Q AI Forecaster for Prediction Market Signals
What is Quotient?
Quotient is an AI forecaster that spots trading edges in prediction markets by finding gaps between its probability estimates and current market prices.
Ready to try Quotient?
Open the official site and get started in a few clicks.
Quotient Overview
Quotient runs an AI forecaster called Q. It gives traders a number on things that might happen, from elections to sports games. You put in a question, Q digs through news and data, and it spits out a probability. That number is its best guess. The whole point is to find where Q disagrees with the market price on a site like Polymarket. That gap is the trade idea.
It's for people who trade prediction markets and want another opinion. The free tier shows you settled results. To see the live calls, you pay. The Member plan costs fifty dollars a month and gives you the main trade signals. The Pro plan, at one hundred fifty a month, throws in every single forecast Q makes and lets you ask it questions directly through an API.
How it works is straightforward but detailed. Q doesn't just guess. It classifies the question, maps out who and what is involved, checks the sources behind any claims, builds possible scenarios, and only then gives a probability. It shows its work, with citations. It runs this process about five hundred times a day across thousands of markets. Only the strongest disagreements with the market-where the odds are cheap and the gap is wide enough-get flagged as official trade signals.
What sets it apart is the transparency. Each signal page shows you Q's pick, the market price when it was called, how the price moved, and the full research behind it. You see the reasoning and the risks. Its track record is public. Over the last sixty days, Q picked the right side more often than the Polymarket price in over half of all events. In geopolitics, that win rate jumped to nearly seventy-three percent. They publish paper returns, too. One example had Q saying a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon was seventy-one percent likely when the market said thirty-three percent. It happened.
It's not just a website. Developers can plug Q into their own tools using its API or a command line interface. There's a whole ecosystem building on it. Another app called Mandate Markets uses Q's forecasts to manage positions automatically on your own Polymarket account. A news trading app called Capacitr lets you see Q's take right next to a headline. The company itself doesn't place any trades or hold any money. It just publishes the research.
The main thing to know is that these are model estimates, not guarantees. The overall edge over the market is real but often slim. The performance numbers don't include trading fees or the fact that you might not get the exact price shown. And they recently switched from a token-based access model to a straight monthly fee, which didn't make everyone happy. But if you want a systematic, evidence-based second opinion on what might happen next, Quotient gives you that.
Quotient Key features
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Five step forecast
Q classifies the question, maps the actors and linked markets, checks the sources behind each claim, builds scenarios, then gives one probability with the reasoning behind it. Each step shows up in the output with citations.
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Signal feed
Only forecasts where Q's number clears the market price by enough become Signals. Every Signal page links out to its market, so the reader places the trade on Polymarket or Kalshi.
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Category thresholds
A forecast needs a gap of 5 to 10 points to qualify for events, or 15 points for commodities. Q checks order book depth and the fees before it publishes.
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Ask Q chat
Readers can question the forecaster inside the app when a call looks thin or wrong. Pro plans reach the same chat through the API.
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Alerts and lists
Users group markets into lists and get a ping in the app or on Telegram when a price moves. Pro adds alerts on any market, even one with no Signal attached.
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Daily reforecasts
Q reruns its forecasts every day and on request. Each change carries a date, so a reader can trace what moved the number.
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Stability index
The Geopolitical Stability Index scores conflict, diplomacy and policy markets daily from 0 to 100, where a higher number means calmer. Marked points show where Q broke with the market before the index turned.
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Public track record
Settled Signal results are free to read and scored against Polymarket prices. Over 60 days Q beat the market on 53.7% of 3,029 events, and on 72.7% in geopolitics.
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Custom questions
Users write their own question and resolution rule, and Q returns a probability with the evidence and the disconfirming cases laid out.
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Developer API
Endpoints cover markets, forecast to price gaps, evidence, trade Signals, forecast requests and webhook feeds. Several keys can share one credit balance, or a caller pays per call with x402 from a wallet.
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Agent skills and CLI
The npm package quotient-forecasting installs skills for Claude Code, Codex, Hermes Agent and OpenClaw, plus an optional MCP server for native tool calls. The CLI handles setup, status and diagnostics.
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Mandate Markets execution
Mandate Markets turns a Q forecast into a position on the user's own Polymarket or Hyperliquid account, with risk limits set beforehand. Quotient never places the trade.
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Member and Pro plans
Member costs $49.99 a month for 50+ Signals a week, alerts, lists and Ask Q. Pro costs $149 and adds every Q forecast, reforecasts on request and API access.
Quotient Fees
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Member monthly Member costs $49.99 per month and includes 50+ Signals a week with Q's case, Ask Q, lists and alerts, and portfolio tracking.
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Member annual A year of Member is $400, which the pricing page says saves 33% against paying monthly.
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Pro plan Pro costs $149 per month or $1,200 per year and adds every Q forecast, reforecasts on request, alerts on any market, API access, and the Kalshi and Robinhood venues.
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Token access changed Holding 10M $QUOTIENT tokens unlocked early Signals before the late October relaunch, and the paid plans replaced that, so the token no longer opens access.
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Free results Settled Signal results are public, while open Signals need a paid membership to view.
Quotient Supported networks
Base
Robinhood
How to use Quotient
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Open the web app
Go to the Quotient Signals site in a browser. There is no phone app, but the site works on mobile.
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Pick a plan
Member costs $49.99 a month or $400 a year and gives you 50 or more Signals a week with Q's case on each one. Pro costs $149 a month or $1,200 a year and adds every Q forecast, reforecasts on request, alerts on any market and API access.
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Browse the Signals feed
Q runs about 500 forecasts a day and only the strongest become Signals, so start with the feed rather than the full forecast list. The Explore page splits them by category: politics, economy, geopolitics, tech, culture, commodities, equities and sports.
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Read Q's case before betting
Each Signal page shows Q's pick, the market price when the Signal published, how the price has moved since, and the research and risks behind the call. The gap between Q's number and the market price is the reason the Signal exists, so check that gap yourself.
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Follow the link to trade
Quotient publishes research and never places trades or holds your money. Open the linked market on Polymarket, Novig or Hyperliquid with a Member plan, or on Kalshi and Robinhood with Pro, and put the trade on there.
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Set alerts and lists
Alerts arrive in the app and in Telegram, and lists tell you when a price moves on a market you care about. Build a list for the categories you trade so you stop refreshing the feed all day.
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Track your positions
Add your open trades to the portfolio tracker to see how they sit against Q's forecasts. It keeps your own record separate from the paper results on the track record page.
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Ask Q a question
Ask Q is a chat with the forecaster inside the app. Use it on a market Q has not covered yet, or to push back on a call you think is wrong.
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Request a new forecast
Pro users can ask Q to re-run a forecast when something changes, and put alerts on any market rather than only the ones that became Signals. Every run is dated, so you can see what moved since the last one.
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Plug in an agent
The quotient-forecasting CLI installs from npm, and agent skills exist for Claude Code, Codex, Hermes Agent and OpenClaw. API access takes a key, or you can pay per call with x402 from a wallet and skip the key.
Quotient Demo video
Quotient Screenshots
Quotient User Reviews
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I had a chance to check out the new app from @QuotientHQ and I love what they're building. The app is clean and intuitive. Kalshi and Polymarket did over 70B in volume in September. That number will grow. Q gives ppl an edge in trading. What's that worth??? Accumulating $QUOTIENT
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Just tried out the new @QuotientHQ Signals app. Had some wins and a few losses. Love the feed function, which shows edge for upcoming bets in your categories so you don't miss any. Definitely better to recoup losses, keep clicking! Also, loved the updated Explore page. The redesigned layout is much better than the old one, offering better info and showing odds for live matches too! Still clicking for the Edge, way to go @QuotientHQ!
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addicted to swing trading the volatility of NFL games with my @openclaw bot @myk_clawd on @Polymarket ty @QuotientHQ for the outlooks
View on X ↗
Quotient Review
Pros
- It flags a trade opportunity when its forecast differs from the market price by a set margin.
- The system explains its reasoning and cites sources for each forecast.
- It has a strong track record in geopolitics, beating the market on about 73% of events in one recent period.
- You can request updated forecasts on demand with a Pro subscription.
- It works with several execution platforms, letting you automate trades based on its signals.
- The free public tier shows the results of settled signals so you can check its past performance.
Cons
- The edge over Polymarket is thin: Q beat the market on 53.7% of events over 60 days and its Brier score was slightly worse (0.1990 vs 0.1979).
- Every track record figure is paper traded and leaves out fees, spread, slippage and taxes.
- Membership runs $49.99 a month, and holding $QUOTIENT tokens no longer unlocks access.
- Kalshi and Robinhood markets only appear on the $149 Pro plan.
- There is no phone app, only a web app that works on mobile.
- A forecast only becomes a Signal when the side Q favors costs under 70 cents and the gap clears a category minimum, so most of the roughly 500 daily forecasts never reach the feed.
- Quotient does not place trades, so you fill each Signal yourself and can miss the price it quoted.
Our verdict
Quotient's Q forecaster earns its keep in geopolitics, where it beat Polymarket on 72.7% of events over the last 60 days, and the Signals feed turns a probability into a trade idea with sources attached. The overall record is thin: Q beat Polymarket on 53.7% of 3,029 events, with a Brier score level with the market. All of it is paper traded, with no fees, spread or slippage, so that +13.7% return is not money anyone collected. The subscription runs $49.99 a month for a web only app, and $QUOTIENT holders who bought the token for access got moved onto that fee after the token fell, which still leaves a bad taste. Worth the money if you already trade Polymarket or Kalshi and want a cited second opinion on politics and conflict risk, and not worth it if you want a tool that places the bet for you.
Is Quotient safe & legit?
Quotient is built by a small team with backgrounds in forecasting and crypto, and it's trusted enough to be integrated by tools like Bankr and Mandate Markets. The main risk is that its forecasts are model-generated estimates, not financial advice, and its overall edge against the market is fairly thin. No major operational red flags, like mishandling funds, are known, since Quotient only publishes research and never holds user money.
X account intel @QuotientHQ
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Based in United States
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Joined X February 2026 9 months ago
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Username changes 1 rename last on Feb 6, 2026
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Signup source United States App Store
Public profile signals from X. Use as one input alongside other due-diligence.
Security scan checked Nov 11, 2026
- Google Web Risk Not flagged
- MetaMask Not flagged
- Phantom Not flagged
- ScamSniffer Not flagged
- EtherAddressLookup Not flagged
- Keplr Wallet Not flagged
Domain quotient.social checked against Google's lists of unsafe sites and public crypto wallet blacklists.
This is an automated check, not a security audit. The summary is drafted from the project's own pages and public posts, and the domain is looked up on public blocklists. Nothing here is financial advice: only put in money you can afford to lose. How we review listings
Quotient FAQ
What is Quotient and how does it help with prediction markets?
How does Q decide which forecasts become trade Signals?
What do I get with a Quotient membership?
How accurate is Q?
Does Quotient place trades for me?
Quotient Updates
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I’ve been looking at why some LLM forecasters handle misleading or inaccurate evidence better than others as part of my work at @QuotientHQ. It appears that models fine-tuned on resolved prediction market odds do a better job resisting disinformation than raw models
I want to better understand how well prediction markets themselves resist false or misleading claims. Do prices move less on false claims than on comparable real news? And if they do move, how quickly do they revert?
If election market odds turn out to be resilient to false and misleading information, news outlets and social media platforms should consider displaying them alongside contentious claims while they are being fact-checked
- 4 reposts
- 16 likes
- 483 views
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Q called it at the Chennai Open: Magda Linette vs Anastasia Zakharova 🎾
Q was forecasting a Linette WIN at 52%
The Market was pricing her at 48¢
Linette won on Nov 7
📈 A trade following this signal would have returned +108.3% (48¢ → 100¢)
1 more in this thread
🔗 https://signal.quotient.social/markets/6764637- 1 replies
- 1 reposts
- 9 likes
- 379 views
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A week of @QuotientHQ's outlooks, executed on autopilot by @MandateMarkets on my Polymarket account. Big W
- 1 reposts
- 3 likes
- 233 views
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Q called it: Flyers vs. Flames 🏒
On Nov 7, Q was forecasting a Flames WIN at 56%
The market was 50/50
The Flames won on Nov 8
📈 A trade following this signal would have returned +100% (50¢ → 100¢)
1 more in this thread
🔗 https://signal.quotient.social/markets/5609575- 1 replies
- 1 reposts
- 14 likes
- 628 views
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Q called it: 76ers vs. Pistons 🏀
On Nov 1, Q was pricing a 76ers WIN at 58¢
The market was pricing the game as a coin-flip at 50¢
The 76ers won on Nov 4
📈 A trade following this signal would have returned +100% (50¢ → 100¢)
1 more in this thread
🔗 https://signal.quotient.social/markets/6374089- 4 replies
- 1 reposts
- 15 likes
- 732 views
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It's not a competition between PMs and modelers lol
Smart PM traders use models folks like Nate create or create their own, like we've done at @QuotientHQ, to price and compare markets
@GollumGekko1 said it perfectly: "PMs are aggregators and bullshit testers of information; they don't create information on their own"- 4 reposts
- 9 likes
- 463 views
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Q called it: Cavaliers vs Thunder 🏀
On Nov 2, Q was pricing a Thunder WIN at 58¢
Polymarket was only pricing them at 49¢
The Thunder won last night
📈 A trade following this signal would have returned +104.1% (49¢ → 100¢)
1 more in this thread
🔗 https://signal.quotient.social/markets/6380783- 2 replies
- 2 reposts
- 13 likes
- 685 views
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Q called it during the Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Harriet Dart
On Oct 30, Q was pricing a Dart WIN at 53¢ vs the market's 49¢
Dart won on Oct 31
📈 A trade following this signal would have returned +104.1% (49¢ → 100¢)
1 more in this thread
🔗 https://signal.quotient.social/markets/6424231- 1 replies
- 1 reposts
- 16 likes
- 681 views
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@QuotientHQ with the call & @bankrbot with the execution
- 1 replies
- 1 reposts
- 2 likes
- 98 views
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Happy Election Day! We’re looking at Q’s forecasts for Texas and Virginia.
What’s driving our AI forecaster’s calls?
What evidence challenges them?
And what could tonight’s results teach us about improving Q?
Read our latest newsletter.
1 more in this thread
Q puts a Republican loss in Virginia’s 1st District at 88% https://quotient.substack.com/p/q-puts-a-republican-loss-in-virginias?r=e333a&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true- 1 replies
- 3 reposts
- 14 likes
- 904 views
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Q called it: Senators vs. Ducks 📷
On Nov 1, Q was pricing a Ducks WIN at 54¢
Polymarket was only pricing the Ducks at 49¢
The Ducks won the other night on Nov 1
📈 A trade following this signal would have returned +100% (50¢ → 100¢)
1 more in this thread
🔗 https://signal.quotient.social/markets/5329766- 1 replies
- 3 reposts
- 14 likes
- 617 views
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If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.
- 38.4K replies
- 193.6K reposts
- 351.9K likes
Quotient Reviews & Comments
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