Ember
Traders who want a second opinion on Polymarket odds get daily AI probability assessments, timestamped and scored for accuracy.
What is Ember?
Ember runs Claude, Grok, and Gemini daily on live Polymarket questions, locks every forecast with a timestamp, and scores each model publicly with Brier metrics so traders and developers get auditable AI probability signals they can query through an API or use to spot mispricings against current market odds.
Ember Overview
Ember runs multiple AI models independently each day against live Polymarket questions and publishes the probability outputs with timestamps before any resolution occurs. Claude, Grok, and Gemini each assess the same markets in isolation, so you get distinct probability distributions rather than a blended consensus. Every forecast locks at generation, and Brier scoring tracks calibration over time against actual outcomes and crowd odds. The record grows daily without retroactive edits, which means anyone can audit model performance by checking posted scores against Polymarket resolutions as events close.
Traders looking for an edge beyond raw prices can use Ember to spot potential mispricings when AI probability assessments diverge from current market odds. Developers building copy trading bots, aggregation dashboards, or execution tools can pull structured signals through the queryable API and feed them directly into their logic. Researchers tracking AI forecasting accuracy across hundreds of real-world instances get a growing public dataset that accumulates without interference.
The API delivers structured data suitable for bots and analytics pipelines, with rate limits tied to the chosen subscription tier. Plans run from a developer entry level suited to prototyping up through team and enterprise options with higher call volumes and priority support. Founding discounts are available for early adopters.
What separates Ember from generic AI chat tools or unverified opinion sources is the combination of model independence and a permanent public ledger. Because each model runs in isolation on the same question set, the outputs reflect varied reasoning paths rather than models reinforcing each other. The immutable forecast record means accountability is built into the structure, not added as a feature. For anyone serious about using machine intelligence for prediction market trading, that auditability is the core value.
Ember Key features
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Multi-Model Daily Forecasts
Claude, Grok, and Gemini each run independently on the same live market questions every day. Users see separate probability estimates from each model rather than a single blended output, which exposes where models agree or diverge.
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Immutable Forecast Records
Every probability assessment gets timestamped at generation before any market resolves. A public correction trail logs methodological changes, so anyone can verify posted forecasts against actual Polymarket outcomes.
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Brier Score Tracking
Each model's forecasts accumulate in a public performance ledger scored with Brier metrics against real resolutions and crowd consensus. The record grows without retroactive edits, giving researchers a dataset to compare machine versus market judgment over time.
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Queryable API Access
Developers can retrieve forecast data programmatically through a structured API suited for bots, aggregation dashboards, or analytics pipelines. Rate limits scale with the chosen subscription tier.
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Tiered Subscription Plans
Plans range from a developer entry tier for prototyping to team and enterprise options with higher call volumes and priority support. Early adopters receive founding discounts.
Ember Screenshots
Ember User Reviews
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My AI agent stole $30 from me and bet on the weather in London to make $50,000 on Polymarket. I'm not joking... Models know the answer with 80 90 percent probability a day before the event. The market at that moment is pricing completely different numbers... Right now the position is up +62 percent.
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Polymarket stopped feeling like a betting site the moment I realized the best traders weren't predicting news. They were predicting people... $280 to $52,900. No paid alpha. No Discord groups... wallet clusters ranked by expectancy Claude filtering emotional noise multiple agents confirming execution before entry... The real edge is learning how to make them think together.
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Polymarket is open... they literally hand you the API and say go build... there'll always be a market for something.
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Is Ember safe & legit?
Ember was built and is maintained by a solo founder who participates actively in prediction market builder communities. The project has no known red flags. It holds no user funds and does not execute trades, which limits risk, and its forecasts are publicly timestamped and auditable against real Polymarket outcomes. As an early-stage solo project, users should start with a lower tier and watch the track record develop before committing to heavier usage.
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Ember Updates
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Polymarket builders, let's map the stack and connect.
Shoutout to @PolyMartApp, the growing directory of tools & bots.
Here's our current Layer view (Builders leaderboard + PolyMart):
Layer 1: The Venue
@Polymarket
Layer 2: Data Infrastructure
@PolyWhaleAlerts • @joinPolynode • @PolyMap • @poly_data + more
Layer 3: Signals & Intelligence ← We're building here
@emberfyi the public, auditable AI calibration layer.
Frontier models Opus 4.8, Grok 4.3, Gemini 3.1 (migrating this weekend), Brier-scored against the crowd. Locked records. Public corrections trail. Divergences & transparent methodology.
We produce the verifiable second opinion.
Layer 4: Execution & Interfaces (Top Builders)
@betmoardotfun • @PolyCop_Trader • @Poly_Helper • @PolyGun • @SynthesisTrade • @kreoapp • @polytraderpro + many more
Layer 5: Traders
This thread is a living directory of builders.
If you're building in any layer terminals, bots, dashboards, signal tools, or agents, tag yourself or others below. Let's make this the easiest way for builders to discover and connect with each other.
@emberfyi is open for integration conversations (API live • CLOB enrichment + embeds shipping this weekend). Founding-tier access available for serious builders.
What are you building? Drop your handle + layer 👇
#Polymarket #PredictionMarkets- 4 likes
- 97 views
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In a world drowning in AI noise and cherry-picked hype, true intelligence demands accountability.
Ember doesn’t chase viral predictions.
We forge the benchmark: audited, timestamped, Brier-scored AI on Polymarket.
Leading the shift from guesswork to measured truth.
The future of foresight starts here.http://Emberfyi.com- 1 replies
- 5 likes
- 125 views
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One thing we’ve learned building Ember:
Most AI forecasting systems are optimized to sound smart.
Very few are optimized to be measured.
That’s why every Ember forecast is timestamped, scored, and audited against real outcomes.
Prediction markets have done more to push forecasting accountability forward than almost any corner of the internet.
Excited to be building alongside the broader prediction market ecosystem.
@Polymarket- 2 likes
- 44 views
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Most "AI predictions" are screenshots of the one that worked. Ember is the whole AI-audited scoreboard of @Polymarket, locked, public, scored. The wins and the Ls.API access to scores for builders/traders/desks, or you can join to see the live signals of closed trades.
- 1 replies
- 7 likes
- 19.6K views
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Quants, traders, builders..honest take.
We built Ember as a live intelligence layer for prediction markets:
audited AI vs crowd divergence
public Brier scoring
locked methodology
every call timestamped before resolution
Not asking for hype.
What feels real here and what doesn’t?
http://emberfyi.com
- 4 likes
- 118 views
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Ember launch week continues with the rollout of some new key data features and enhanced signals. Everything is public, and the new Ember Signal Score introduces a new auditable AI signal for @Polymarket.
@grok you are coming in a close second on signal with available intel that is enancing the overall EmberScore mmodel- 2 replies
- 4 likes
- 152 views
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building an AI infrastructure signal for prediction markets on Polymarket.... curious what other founders felt was the hardest part to get their momentum out of the gate.
- 1 replies
- 1 likes
- 126 views
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V1 ships.
Ember: audited AI calibration on Polymarket. Three frontier models (Claude, Grok, Gemini) priced daily against live markets. Composite Ember Score per market. Public Brier methodology. 16 correction notices in 17 days.
The record is the product.
http://emberfyi.com · Day 18 of 365.
For builders, quants, and AI agents:
Three-model probabilities, divergence alerts (10+ pt from crowd), conviction scoring, Brier-tracked accuracy. Queryable via REST.
Four B2B tiers from $79/mo founding to $3,999/mo Enterprise.
→ http://emberfyi.com/apiBuilding on Polymarket?
Ember's three-model signal is available as a B2B2C feed for copy-trade bots, unified API platforms, and execution interfaces.
Methodology preserved. Branding co-marketed. Revenue share or flat license.
→ [email protected]
- 2 replies
- 9 likes
- 58.4K views
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V1 ships tomorrow.
Day 18 of 365. The record is the product.
http://emberfyi.com
Excited to add signal to the prediction market- 1 replies
- 5 likes
- 99 views
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Most AI “prediction” tools disappear the moment you check their spreadsheet. We’re doing the opposite. In 4 days, we will ship V1 of Emberfyi, including a new public composite score that averages Claude, Grok, and Gemini on every live Polymarket market. Everything is still locked at 7 AM ET.
No edits.
No deletions.
Full reasoning and corrections are published forever. This is Day 15 of a public 365-day experiment:
Can three frontier models actually beat real-money crowds over time? The record so far is brutally honest.
Tomorrow, it gets a cleaner single number for traders. If you trade Polymarket (or just enjoy watching AI get held accountable), this is worth following. @emberfyi. What’s the dumbest AI trading signal you’ve seen lately?
Reply, and I’ll tell you why it fails the accountability test.- 1 replies
- 1 reposts
- 6 likes
- 27.1K views
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