Polyfactual AI Research Tools and API for Polymarket and Kalshi

Polyfactual Overview

Polyfactual Key features

• Chrome Extension Analysis

  The extension runs inside the Polymarket interface and scrapes live market data as you browse. It generates Buy, Hold, or Avoid recommendations with confidence scores in a floating panel on each market page.

• Facts AI Research API

  Facts AI handles complex prediction market queries, always returns cited sources, and runs on edge networks for fast responses. Over 700K requests have been served across 12 partner integrations, and developers use it to power bots, agents, and custom analysis layers.

• Email-Based Trading Terminal

  Facts Trade lets users sign in with email only, with no browser extension or gas fees required. It auto-deploys a Gnosis Safe wallet on Polygon and supports limit orders, market orders, and cross-chain deposits.

• OSINT Intelligence Terminal

  FactsBase pulls more than 30 open-source intelligence feeds into one view, covering military activity, conflict events, and macro indicators on a 3D globe. A built-in AI layer generates trade ideas from the combined data streams.

• Developer API Access

  Facts Pro gives developers structured endpoints for prediction market data, AI research, and real-time intelligence. It includes rate limiting and secure access controls, and scales to high-volume usage for bots, scanners, and analytics dashboards.

Polyfactual Demo video

Polyfactual Screenshots

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Polyfactual User Reviews

• 

  @curious_vii Oct 2, 2025

  been testing out the new @polyfactual chrome extension
  prediction markets are the next big thing and this makes them way easier to use
  before you go long or short on a market you can now get a quick reality check
  pulling in public info automatically through deep research agents
  super useful for research trading or just sharpening your thinking
  the team even shipped updates i suggested during beta
  like
  auto steelmanning bull bear cases
  plain language breakdown of arbitrage opportunities
  impressed with how fast they move how thoughtful the product is
  if you are curious about the intersection of ai prediction markets keep an eye on this one

  View on X ↗
• 

  @KnightPredict Apr 10, 2026

  super! Joined! a great tool

  View on X ↗
• 

  @KnightPredict Apr 14, 2026

  Just the best! you are doing a lot of useful things!

  View on X ↗

Polyfactual Updates

1. 

   Polyfactual Oct 9, 2026 · 20:31
   Texas Democrat James Talarico trades at 63.5% to win the Senate seat
   Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Polymarket now has one as the favorite.
   On Saturday a NYT/Siena poll put Talarico up 51 to 45 over Republican Paxton. His contract touched 67.5c that day.
   @polyfactual, a weekly podcast on Polymarket news, looked at why the market didn't take that poll at face value.
   Siena's +6 sits at the high end of the field.
   Among likely voters, Fox News has Talarico +2 and Rasmussen has him +1. The FiftyPlusOne polling average says +3.
   Then Polyfactual pulled Siena's final Texas polls against the actual results:
   - 2018 Senate: Cruz +8, won by 2.6
   - 2020 Senate: Cornyn +10, won by 9.6
   - 2022 attorney general: Paxton +6, won by 9.8
   - 2024 Senate: Cruz +4, won by 8.5
   Three of those four misses were bigger than Talarico's entire 3-point lead in the average. Wild.
   Rerun the 2024 miss and Paxton squeaks out a win. Rerun 2018 and Talarico wins by more than 8.
   One more pattern: in both midterms on that list, the party out of the White House beat Siena's number. Democrats in 2018, Paxton in 2022.
   In 2026 the party out of power is the Democrats.
   Polyfactual's read: two cases are not a rule.

   
   • 1 reposts
   • 8 likes
   • 358 views
2. 

   Polyfactual Oct 9, 2026 · 17:01
   Republicans need 3 of 7 Senate races to keep control. Democrats need 5 of them
   That math is right. It also counts Kansas as safe
   Republican control is priced at 36.5% on @trylimitless
   Republicans already have 31 seats that aren't up this year
   The 7 are Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas
   Give them every race outside the 7 where they're favored, and they're at 47
   Winning 3 of the 7 gets them to 50, with Vance breaking the tie
   Run today's odds race by race, and they win 3 or more of the 7 almost half the time
   So 36.5% looks cheap
   Until you check the seats that math calls safe
   In Kansas, Roger Marshall's odds slid from 70.5% to 61.5% in a week. He's still favored, but that's about as tight as Ohio and Texas
   In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is at 28.5% against Pete Ricketts
   South Carolina is 84.5% Republican, not a lock
   And New Hampshire, one of those 7, is 89.5% Democratic
   Count all 35 races and Republicans average about 48 seats, 2 short of 50
   If each race moves on its own, they keep the Senate about 25% of the time
   The real Republican case is that the races move together
   One polling error in their favor could flip several races at once
   By rough math, the tighter that link, the better their odds, from about 25% up to about 40%
   36.5% sits in the upper half of that range
   Will this map move as one, or will Republicans have to win it state by state?

   

   1 more in this thread

   https://limitless.exchange/markets/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026-1785850263367?r=WO1RWOR3R4
   • 8 replies
   • 6 reposts
   • 20 likes
   • 951 views
3. 

   Polyfactual Oct 9, 2026 · 12:31
   Robot financing could become a massive new onchain credit market.
   Humanoid robots will be expensive, but they’ll also be productive assets that generate cash flow and could potentially collateralize their own financing.
   @peaq is already moving in this direction with Doosan Robotics.
   @eneonomics breaks down his thesis on why financing primitives like yield-bearing stablecoins could be one of the best ways to invest in the coming robotics boom.
   • 3 replies
   • 2 reposts
   • 15 likes
   • 915 views
4. 

   Polyfactual Oct 8, 2026 · 20:31
   For anyone looking to participate in @papertrade_xyz, pre-deposits are now live.
   Pre-deposits allow traders deposit funds much earlier than the official launch on October 10 in order to reduce the effect of trading txn pressure on deposit time
   Incase you don’t know what Papertrade is,
   It’s basically an exchange built on top of Hyperliquid that lets you trade up to 1000x leverage in which a $1 loss can help you mine 100 $Paper, but only while the pool’s total winnings are under $2 million so the earliest losers get the most tokens
   The edge cases come from the same design. With zero fees and fills at the mid-price, the pool makes money only when traders are wrong. A group of good traders, or someone who sees prices on another venue first, can drain it and earn $Paper
   Some interesting incentives to say the least.

   
   • 4 replies
   • 11 likes
   • 795 views
5. 

   Polyfactual Oct 8, 2026 · 18:45
   So much news and drama around how the growth of AI is suddenly going to trip over Crypto is an industry because protocols can now be easily compromised
   Which has led to panic with onchain holdings and funds, so much so that we’re seeing slight dips of BTC prices in real time
   What makes this so ironic is, if AI gets to the point where there’s so much doom for crypto,
   Then it must mean the entire Finance sector ranging across TradFi banks, stock market platforms etc are all also due for doom
   And that’s also not to talk of social platforms and government websites so if AI is coming for crypto, then it’s coming for everyone all.
   It’s that simple
   • 3 replies
   • 1 reposts
   • 9 likes
   • 617 views
6. 

   Polyfactual Oct 8, 2026 · 13:26
   Ares founder @morganlai was an early Pumpfun investor. Now she's building @arespro, a social trading layer for prediction markets.
   Her takeaway from memecoins: traders weren't just trading tokens. they were constantly repricing narratives and information as reality changed.
   Prediction markets turn that behavior into an explicit asset class.
   • 7 replies
   • 6 reposts
   • 26 likes
   • 988 views
7. 

   Polyfactual Oct 7, 2026 · 20:55
   Many prediction markets simply aren't worth trading today.
   You might spot a 3¢ edge, but with capped upside, the return isn't enough to justify the trade.
   @Lattica is currently building one of the best tools to change that. From our talk with @SteveFlanders22 and @nicsickwilly
   • 4 replies
   • 5 reposts
   • 26 likes
   • 1.1K views
8. 

   Polyfactual Oct 7, 2026 · 10:40
   A lot of people were waiting for Shayne Coplan's TOKEN2049 talk to hear anything at all about $POLY
   He said Polymarket is exploring an onchain asset that works more like a stock
   Key points from his chat with Balaji, per reports:
   ＞The asset would be tied to Polymarket's economics, with real utility built in. He said it's not financial advice
   ＞ICE, which owns the NYSE, has invested $1.6 billion in Polymarket. He said ICE is talking with regulators about putting stocks onchain
   ＞Sports is a big driver of new users and revenue
   He hasn't shared a name, a date or airdrop details yet
   Round two is on October 8
   It's a 20-minute fireside chat called "Polymarket: The Information Edge" on the Institutional Stage, at 11:20 a.m. Singapore time
   What are you expecting from day two: more on the asset, or the same line for a different audience?
   • 11 replies
   • 5 reposts
   • 35 likes
   • 3.2K views
9. 

   Polyfactual Oct 6, 2026 · 17:55
   So far this year, this is probably the highest mindshare speculation around the potential $Poly token by Polymarket has been
   It started by @MatthewModabber posting about how Polymarket made $9.9m in revenue vs Hyperliquid’s $2.6m, in which Shayne then quoted with having something to say about it at Token2049
   Now, with all of this in the air—Andy, founder of The Rollup, then tweeted “POLY is coming”, which further increased the speculation
   Would be very much interesting to see how this plays out
   • 4 replies
   • 1 reposts
   • 19 likes
   • 5.6K views
10. 

    Polyfactual Oct 5, 2026 · 20:51
    Talarico led 51 to 45 in Siena and still slid back to 63.5c
    He touched 67.5c that Saturday, then the gains leaked out. I think traders weighed the 1988 drought over one headline.
    A single survey nudges charts. Texas moves slower.
    • 1 reposts
    • 8 likes
    • 312 views
11. 

    Polyfactual Oct 5, 2026 · 14:01
    Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988
    Polymarket gives one a 63.5% chance
    On Saturday, an NYT/Siena poll put James Talarico up 51 to 45. His price touched 67.5¢ that day.
    The market didn't take the poll at face value, and the other polls show why. Siena's +6 is at the high end. Among likely voters, Fox News has Talarico up 2 and Rasmussen up 1. The FiftyPlusOne average is Talarico +3
    Now compare a 3-point lead with Siena's record in Texas Senate races, plus Paxton's own 2022 race
    Final poll vs result:
    2018 Senate: Cruz +8. He won by 2.6
    2020 Senate: Cornyn +10. He won by 9.6
    2022 attorney general: Paxton +6. He won by 9.8
    2024 Senate: Cruz +4. He won by 8.5
    Three of those four misses were bigger than Talarico's lead in the average
    Repeat the 2024 miss and Paxton wins narrowly. Repeat the 2018 miss and Talarico wins by more than 8
    In both midterms on that list, the party out of the White House beat Siena's number: Democrats in 2018, Paxton in 2022. In 2026, the party out of power is the Democrats
    Two cases are not a rule
    Is Talarico's lead real, or one normal Texas polling miss away from a Paxton win?

    

    1 more in this thread

    https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winner?r=polyfactual
    • 6 replies
    • 2 reposts
    • 22 likes
    • 1.7K views
12. 

    Polyfactual Oct 4, 2026 · 17:31
    On news on Arc Chain,
    TVL on Arc just crossed $500m and a very large % of it comes from Lending protocols. No surprises as people and institutions are looking to utilize the higher APYs on stables by Circle.
    After the Lending vertical who take up a super high % of the TVL splits, the next category up are Launchpads, with @TollyLabs taking the lead in this area
    Stables spread across the chain is just around the $450m mark, with USDC accounting for most of it
    Probably the interesting trend to look at here is, there is relatively stable growth in TVL alongside Launch pads taking off which leaves quite an amount of room for upward volume growth to sustain other verticals such as memes and other trading activities
    • 2 replies
    • 2 reposts
    • 11 likes
    • 994 views
13. 

    Polyfactual Oct 4, 2026 · 00:08
    One big order moving the odds like this makes me pretty wary of taking the price seriously.
    • 1 reposts
    • 2 likes
    • 143 views
14. 

    Polyfactual Oct 3, 2026 · 17:17
    WHY PREDICTION MARKET ARE THE NEXT BIG CRYPTO NARRATIVE
    Prediction markets as the next narrative
    2021 was NFTs and DeFi farming.
    Memecoins and DEXs came after.
    The next big crypto meta? Prediction markets, where you get exposure to real-world outcomes.
    Explore @prophetmarketai today
    • 44 replies
    • 8 reposts
    • 52 likes
    • 4.5K views
15. 

    Polyfactual Oct 3, 2026 · 17:00
    Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus showed a 2025 operating loss of more than $8 billion
    Polymarket's bankruptcy market went more than two days without a trade
    Today, its odds nearly doubled
    Reuters reported the numbers on Sep 28. Within hours, odds of an IPO this year jumped from 75.5% to 83.5%
    The bankruptcy market sat untouched, then slipped to 5.5%
    One wallet bought $44,000 of YES at about 7¢. NO holders then sold, and the price ran to 13% before settling at 10-11%
    The losses had been public for four days, and the price had fallen. Then one wallet's buying moved it. So today's 10% reflects positioning more than the prospectus.
    Anthropic ended 2025 with $20.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, per Reuters. It has raised $95 billion since. Bloomberg reported preliminary Q2 2026 revenue above $11.5 billion and positive adjusted operating income
    Against that: $518 billion in multi-year cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations, and two customers behind nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue
    On those numbers, 10% looks high
    NO at 90¢ still isn't free money
    It returns about 11% over 15 months, before fees. And under the rules, announcing a bankruptcy filing of any kind is enough for YES
    What would have to go wrong for Anthropic to announce a filing before 2028?

    
    • 9 replies
    • 4 reposts
    • 23 likes
    • 1.5K views

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