Polyfactual AI Research Tools and API for Polymarket and Kalshi

Polyfactual Overview

Polyfactual Key features

• Chrome Extension Analysis

  The extension runs inside the Polymarket interface and scrapes live market data as you browse. It generates Buy, Hold, or Avoid recommendations with confidence scores in a floating panel on each market page.

• Facts AI Research API

  Facts AI handles complex prediction market queries, always returns cited sources, and runs on edge networks for fast responses. Over 700K requests have been served across 12 partner integrations, and developers use it to power bots, agents, and custom analysis layers.

• Email-Based Trading Terminal

  Facts Trade lets users sign in with email only, with no browser extension or gas fees required. It auto-deploys a Gnosis Safe wallet on Polygon and supports limit orders, market orders, and cross-chain deposits.

• OSINT Intelligence Terminal

  FactsBase pulls more than 30 open-source intelligence feeds into one view, covering military activity, conflict events, and macro indicators on a 3D globe. A built-in AI layer generates trade ideas from the combined data streams.

• Developer API Access

  Facts Pro gives developers structured endpoints for prediction market data, AI research, and real-time intelligence. It includes rate limiting and secure access controls, and scales to high-volume usage for bots, scanners, and analytics dashboards.

Polyfactual Demo video

Polyfactual Screenshots

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Polyfactual User Reviews

• 

  @curious_vii Oct 2, 2025

  been testing out the new @polyfactual chrome extension
  prediction markets are the next big thing and this makes them way easier to use
  before you go long or short on a market you can now get a quick reality check
  pulling in public info automatically through deep research agents
  super useful for research trading or just sharpening your thinking
  the team even shipped updates i suggested during beta
  like
  auto steelmanning bull bear cases
  plain language breakdown of arbitrage opportunities
  impressed with how fast they move how thoughtful the product is
  if you are curious about the intersection of ai prediction markets keep an eye on this one

  View on X ↗
• 

  @KnightPredict Apr 10, 2026

  super! Joined! a great tool

  View on X ↗
• 

  @KnightPredict Apr 14, 2026

  Just the best! you are doing a lot of useful things!

  View on X ↗

Polyfactual Updates

1. 

   Polyfactual Aug 20, 2026 · 19:05
   Online casinos might be the ultimate distribution layer for prediction markets.
   They already have millions of highly engaged users comfortable putting money behind outcomes.
   The next wave of prediction market users may not be downloading Polymarket or Kalshi.
   From our conversation with Eneo, founder of @prophetmarketai
   • 1 replies
   • 1 reposts
   • 9 likes
   • 747 views
2. 

   Polyfactual Aug 20, 2026 · 12:47
   Tokenized equity isn't going to kill meme coins.
   Crypto has never evolved by replacing one speculative asset with another.
   If anything, it keeps creating more ways to get exposure to the same underlying project.
   Equity, utility tokens, meme coins, they don't have to compete. They can stack.
   A “double dip” could increasingly become the default, and sometimes even a triple dip.
   • 7 replies
   • 16 likes
   • 1.6K views
3. 

   Polyfactual Aug 19, 2026 · 19:45
   Here's how @forecast_agents is using AI agents to make predictions on Robinhood Chain:
   7 specialized agents independently analyze a prediction market from different perspectives.
   Each producing its own probability and confidence level.
   An 8th agent then uses a Bayesian consensus mechanism to weigh their reliability and disagreements to produce a final probability.
   • 5 replies
   • 2 reposts
   • 17 likes
   • 1.1K views
4. 

   Polyfactual Aug 19, 2026 · 14:07
   Democrats lead the Alaska primary on paper. But for how long?
   ＞Tom Begich (D) has crashed from 55% to 19% on Polymarket in just a few days
   ＞Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) now leads at 37%
   ＞Bernadette Wilson (R) at 18%
   ＞David Bronson (R) at 6%
   Mail-in ballots count through August 28, so expect minor noise at the margins, but the board is mostly set
   The mechanics: all candidates run on a single primary ballot, voters pick one, and the top four advance. Candidates have until August 31 to drop out
   November triggers ranked-choice voting (RCV):
   ＞Voters rank candidates by preference
   ＞If no one clears 50% on round one, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their votes reallocate to secondary picks
   Now look at the optical illusion
   Top-line shows the two Dems combining for 40-42%. Looks like Dems are leading, but look at the field size
   Democrats ran two viable candidates. Republicans ran twelve
   Combined, the GOP field is pulling 55-57% of the raw vote - it was just heavily fractured across a dozen names
   Come November, that fractured field disappears. Republican ballots will consolidate hard behind Wilson or Bronson. In RCV, second- and third-choice vote transfers work brutally in favor of the majority party
   Don't ignore the macro structure:
   ＞Alaska is deep red. Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024
   ＞The last Democratic governor left office in 2002
   Even if both Democrats make the final four, the GOP enters the runoff rounds with an overwhelming baseline advantage.
   The two main catalysts before November:
   ＞Both Dems stay in: heavy reallocation grind where GOP consolidation likely wins out.
   ＞One Dem drops out before August 31: Democratic win probability reprices higher instantly.
   Two Dems making the final four is a real tactical window the party hasn't had in decades
   But Alaska's structural math still heavily favors the red ticket - and smart money is already pricing it in

   

   1 more in this thread

   https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-governor-election-winner?r=polyfactual
   • 11 replies
   • 1 reposts
   • 22 likes
   • 2.7K views
5. 

   Polyfactual Aug 19, 2026 · 00:13
   Same heartbeat. Different pedigree.
   • 4 replies
   • 3 reposts
   • 29 likes
   • 97.7K views
6. 

   Polyfactual Aug 18, 2026 · 21:59
   LIVE with @Lattica, Building Leverage for Prediction Markets
   • 3 replies
   • 6 reposts
   • 32 likes
   • 1.3K views
7. 

   Polyfactual Aug 18, 2026 · 16:36
   “People bet on people.”
   That might be the missing piece creator coins never figured out.
   The token itself had little connection to what the creator actually believed.
   @cleopetrafun is flipping that model with Thesis indices
   Instead of investing in a creator's coin, invest in the ideas they're willing to put their name behind.
   • 4 replies
   • 2 reposts
   • 15 likes
   • 879 views
8. 

   Polyfactual Aug 18, 2026 · 12:52
   One trader has already made $4,000 on his markets at @prophetmarketai
   Another deposited $100 and 4X'd his account.
   Of course, the experience varies greatly depending on the trader and markets they create.
   Prophet allows anyone to create a market, get a price from the AI, and immediately trade their thesis.
   That's a powerful unlock for permissionless prediction markets.
   • 5 replies
   • 2 reposts
   • 21 likes
   • 2K views
9. 

   Polyfactual Aug 17, 2026 · 21:42
   What if prediction markets had an App Store for AI agents?
   @forecast_agents is building a marketplace on Robinhood chain where anyone can create an AI prediction market agent.
   Predictions are recorded onchain, this builds a verifiable track record as markets resolve.
   The best agents would rise to the top and other traders can pay to use them.
   • 5 replies
   • 2 reposts
   • 19 likes
   • 2.3K views
10. 

    Polyfactual Aug 17, 2026 · 16:51
    Leverage is heating up on prediction markets.
    We’ve seen incredible solutions with bounded claims and lending-backed models, however, some still lean on liquidations that break when prices gap.
    @Lattica is solving for this, we'll be diving into it on tommorrow's stream.
    Tuesday at 6PM EST.

    
    • 6 replies
    • 5 reposts
    • 35 likes
    • 2.9K views
11. 

    Polyfactual Aug 17, 2026 · 14:04
    SpaceX vs Anthropic: will AI take the record for the largest IPO?
    Polymarket odds on "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026":
    - SpaceX - 57%
    - Anthropic - 41.6% (up 33 pts from 8% over the past month)
    In early August, SpaceX was sitting at 90-92%. The market repriced fast
    To win:
    - Resolution is based on the Day 1 closing price
    - SpaceX priced its IPO at $1.77T, but finished Day 1 at $2.1T
    - Anthropic needs to close its debut above that $2.1T mark
    The case for Anthropic:
    - Q2 2026 revenue > $11.5B (+14× YoY) and first positive adjusted operating profit
    - Pre-IPO and secondary markets already trade at $1.5-1.85T
    - Wall Street is pricing in a $190-200B revenue forecast for 2028 (Reuters) - a $2T+ valuation looks totally realistic
    Key risks:
    - If the listing is delayed to 2027, SpaceX wins automatically
    - Even an IPO price of $1.8-1.9T doesn't guarantee a win. It still needs a strong Day 1 rally to beat $2.1T
    What do you think - will Anthropic take the record from SpaceX?

    

    1 more in this thread

    https://polymarket.com/event/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287?r=polyfactual
    • 8 replies
    • 1 reposts
    • 11 likes
    • 2.9K views
12. 

    Polyfactual Aug 17, 2026 · 11:45
    Private equity in virtually any startup could become liquid onchain sooner than most people think.
    @lex_node explains how @MetaLeX_Labs is turning private securities into onchain positions that can eventually become ERC-20s and trade OTC or on AMMs.
    In other words: bringing DeFi liquidity rails to the entire private startup market.
    • 10 replies
    • 3 reposts
    • 26 likes
    • 2.7K views
13. 

    Polyfactual Aug 16, 2026 · 17:07
    One of the least spoken about constraints that could potentially come from higher utilization of AI is regional segregation.
    Basically, different regions/countries allowing one type of AI and not allowing a rival product. For example, Apple is working on creating a China-specific model to incorporate within its products in order to be more within China’s regulatory guidelines
    On one hand, Apple are working on falling within China’s frameworks but on the other hand, what would have happened had they chosen not to due to capital restrictions, etc?
    You’d argue that wouldn’t be case for Apple but what if it’s a smaller company involved - they would probably have to abandon that market due to being unable to comply
    Now what would it mean for people in such district during such circumstances? What would be the cost of missing out on a product that their counterparts have full access to but they can’t because the model maker company were unable to fulfill obligations, especially if AI is going to create as much leverage as it’s being touted to make
    • 2 replies
    • 12 likes
    • 938 views
14. 

    Polyfactual Aug 16, 2026 · 16:41
    Pretty interesting where crypto mindshare stands amongst non-natives, so much so that the Nevada police couldn’t tell what a crypto seed phrase is and leaked it causing a $1.1m drain
    • 2 replies
    • 1 reposts
    • 11 likes
    • 1.8K views
15. 

    Polyfactual Aug 15, 2026 · 19:39
    🇺🇸 Trump is calling crypto execs and prediction market leaders to the White House
    Next Wednesday (Aug 19), Trump is expected to meet crypto and prediction market execs at the White House alongside CFTC Chair Michael Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins
    Expected in the room:Robinhood, Ripple, a16z, Coinbase, Kalshi and Polymarket
    The meeting serves as the kickoff ahead of the first session of the CFTC's new Innovation Advisory Committee
    The irony is hard to miss: prediction markets, which faced heavy regulatory pressure not long ago, are now being invited straight into the White House to help shape the rules
    Meanwhile, the real battle remains the CLARITY Act - the main crypto market structure bill
    On September 15, the Senate will hold the first procedural vote (cloture). It needs 60 votes just to open debate. After the recess, lawmakers have only a few working weeks left before midterms
    Current odds of passage in 2026:
    ＞Galaxy Research - 10%
    ＞Polymarket - 19%
    The main obstacles are a brutally tight calendar and unresolved fights over ethics rules and stablecoin yields
    The White House meeting shows the administration is still pushing dialogue
    But with these odds and almost no runway left, it looks more like an attempt to keep the process alive than a realistic path to getting CLARITY done this year

    

    1 more in this thread

    https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026?r=polyfactual
    • 7 replies
    • 2 reposts
    • 16 likes
    • 1.4K views

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