Polyfactual AI Research Tools and API for Polymarket and Kalshi

Polyfactual Overview

Polyfactual Key features

• Chrome Extension Analysis

  The extension runs inside the Polymarket interface and scrapes live market data as you browse. It generates Buy, Hold, or Avoid recommendations with confidence scores in a floating panel on each market page.

• Facts AI Research API

  Facts AI handles complex prediction market queries, always returns cited sources, and runs on edge networks for fast responses. Over 700K requests have been served across 12 partner integrations, and developers use it to power bots, agents, and custom analysis layers.

• Email-Based Trading Terminal

  Facts Trade lets users sign in with email only, with no browser extension or gas fees required. It auto-deploys a Gnosis Safe wallet on Polygon and supports limit orders, market orders, and cross-chain deposits.

• OSINT Intelligence Terminal

  FactsBase pulls more than 30 open-source intelligence feeds into one view, covering military activity, conflict events, and macro indicators on a 3D globe. A built-in AI layer generates trade ideas from the combined data streams.

• Developer API Access

  Facts Pro gives developers structured endpoints for prediction market data, AI research, and real-time intelligence. It includes rate limiting and secure access controls, and scales to high-volume usage for bots, scanners, and analytics dashboards.

Polyfactual Demo video

Polyfactual Screenshots

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Polyfactual User Reviews

• 

  @curious_vii Oct 2, 2025

  been testing out the new @polyfactual chrome extension
  prediction markets are the next big thing and this makes them way easier to use
  before you go long or short on a market you can now get a quick reality check
  pulling in public info automatically through deep research agents
  super useful for research trading or just sharpening your thinking
  the team even shipped updates i suggested during beta
  like
  auto steelmanning bull bear cases
  plain language breakdown of arbitrage opportunities
  impressed with how fast they move how thoughtful the product is
  if you are curious about the intersection of ai prediction markets keep an eye on this one

  View on X ↗
• 

  @KnightPredict Apr 10, 2026

  super! Joined! a great tool

  View on X ↗
• 

  @KnightPredict Apr 14, 2026

  Just the best! you are doing a lot of useful things!

  View on X ↗

Polyfactual Updates

1. 

   Polyfactual Oct 30, 2026 · 17:07
   Democrats haven't flipped both chambers in a midterm since 2006
   On @trylimitless they're 71.5% to do it on Tuesday
   A week ago that price was 67.5%
   The House looks close to settled, with Democrats at 93.5%
   The Senate on its own is 72.5%
   So the sweep is a Senate trade
   It sits just 1 point below the Senate price
   Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion this week, the biggest crypto hack on record
   The sweep went from 66.5% before the hack to 71.5% now
   A CNN poll has Democrat Adam Hamilton up 49 to 45 on Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, inside the margin of error
   The same day, Trump called off his Kansas rally
   Marshall said he wasn't sure why, then guessed he's polling so well that Trump has better places to be
   Republicans keeping both chambers trades at 5.5%
   Democrats need four more Senate seats. Which four? Is Kansas on your list?

   

   1 more in this thread

   Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
   https://limitless.exchange/markets/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-1785851201875?r=POLYFACTUAL
   • 23 replies
   • 4 reposts
   • 30 likes
   • 1.1K views
2. 

   Polyfactual Oct 29, 2026 · 19:20
   17:38 On stream glazing Polymarket
   18:07 Polymarket gets hacked
   • 3 reposts
   • 3 likes
   • 139 views
3. 

   Polyfactual Oct 29, 2026 · 18:15
   Polyfactual Live: AI Bubble Fears, Big Tech Earnings, Crypto Markets & the Macro Outlook
   • 1 replies
   • 2 reposts
   • 5 likes
   • 631 views
4. 

   Polyfactual Oct 29, 2026 · 16:35
   Tomorrow we're having @forecast_agents back on the podcast!
   We'll be discussing the future of prediction markets on Robinhood Chain and the new primitives being built around them.
   Live on X at 4 PM EST.
   • 5 replies
   • 2 reposts
   • 9 likes
   • 715 views
5. 

   Polyfactual Oct 29, 2026 · 02:16
   Hey, Forecasters!
   Quick reminder: we're going live this Friday, October 30, at 4 PM EST with @basedlourie from @polyfactual.
   We'll talk Forecast AI, Polyfactual, prediction markets, Robinhood, and what's next.
   See you there!
   • 3 replies
   • 4 reposts
   • 8 likes
   • 1.1K views
6. 

   Polyfactual Oct 28, 2026 · 13:36
   On election day, Eisenkot was a 63% favorite on Polymarket to be Israel's next PM
   The final TV polls had his bloc ahead by two to six seats
   Now he's at 31.6%
   Netanyahu went from 22.5% to 46.5%
   Israel still expects to count more than half a million ballots
   Exit polls showed no clear winner
   The actual count put Netanyahu's bloc ahead
   With all regular ballots counted, his bloc is on track for 53 of the 61 seats it needs
   Eisenkot's bloc has 48 and the Arab parties 19
   The uncounted ballots are double-envelope votes
   They come from soldiers, reservists, displaced Israelis and others who voted away from their home polling stations
   Counting starts this evening and should wrap up Thursday
   Official results are due Nov 4
   In 2022 these ballots moved one seat, from United Torah Judaism to Yisrael Beytenu
   Netanyahu needs eight
   Two small right-wing parties are projected to fall short of the 3.25% threshold
   If either gets in, more than one seat changes hands
   The market pays out only when someone is formally sworn in as PM
   If no one is sworn in by Dec 31, 2027, it resolves to Other
   So which party ends up deciding who becomes Israel's next PM?

   
   • 21 replies
   • 3 reposts
   • 29 likes
   • 3.1K views
7. 

   Polyfactual Oct 28, 2026 · 11:28
   Today's stream with @trylimitless has been postponed due to unforeseen circumstances.
   We're rescheduling for a later date, will share more details soon!
   Apologies for the change in plans. Stay tuned!
   • 4 replies
   • 1 reposts
   • 10 likes
   • 856 views
8. 

   Polyfactual Oct 27, 2026 · 18:48
   Earn stablecoins rewards for joining the livestream
   My friend from Polyfactual will be hosting the livestream with @trylimitless this Wednesday
   Chief Product Officer will speak about what's coming next to prediction markets
   Open to any community questions coming up during the live
   Guys are also giving away rewards in stablecoins for live viewers
   October 28, 2:00pm GMT

   
   • 17 replies
   • 1 reposts
   • 35 likes
   • 854 views
9. 

   Polyfactual Oct 27, 2026 · 17:36
   Another exciting partnership for @trylimitless.
   If you've been curious about what's next for Limitless, this is a good opportunity to hear directly from the CPO.
   Wednesday, 9 AM EST. Come with your best questions, there's USDC up for grabs too. 👀
   • 2 replies
   • 1 reposts
   • 4 likes
   • 214 views
10. 

    Polyfactual Oct 27, 2026 · 17:06
    We’ve partnered with @trylimitless and to kick it off we're hosting a stream this Wednesday/tmrw at 9 AM EST!
    We'll be joined by Dima, CPO at Limitless, to discuss what's next for Limitless, our partnership and answer your questions.
    We're also giving away 10 to 20 in USDC for the best questions asked during the stream!
    Come hang out, ask questions, and win some prizes. See you Wednesday!

    
    • 24 replies
    • 13 reposts
    • 40 likes
    • 2.1K views
11. 

    Polyfactual Oct 26, 2026 · 13:57
    On October 11, Mbappé was 1.8% to win the Ballon d'Or
    He is 22% this morning
    Not one vote changed in between
    The award covers August 2025 to July 2026, so Sunday's Clásico isn't even in the window
    The result has been locked for four weeks
    Polymarket has kept trading it
    Polymarket, after voting closed vs now
    ＞ Mbappé: 1.8% low on Oct 11 → 22%
    ＞ Yamal: 60% peak on Oct 1 → 10%
    ＞ Kane: 32.6% low on Oct 1 → 68%
    Each move is either noise or information about an answer that already exists
    2024 is the precedent
    Vinícius was 87.5% on ceremony morning, and a list on X billed as the leaked result had him winning
    By mid-afternoon he was 5.7%
    Real Madrid boycotted the ceremony in Paris, and Rodri won
    In 2025, Dembélé was the morning favorite at 76%, and he won
    Two ceremonies is too few to call a base rate
    This year none of the top three is staying home
    Fabrizio Romano reports Mbappé, Kane and Yamal will all attend
    At 68% Kane is still the clear favorite
    At 22% Mbappé is about a one-in-five shot
    The ceremony starts tonight at 20:00 UTC in London
    Is Mbappé's run from 1.8% to 22% information or noise?

    
    • 24 replies
    • 7 reposts
    • 79 likes
    • 35.6K views
12. 

    Polyfactual Oct 25, 2026 · 16:45
    The S-1 didn't drop Friday
    Anthropic's November IPO is still possible, with less time to get there
    Anthropic submitted a draft S-1 confidentially in June
    Under SEC policy, the S-1 has to go public at least 15 days before the roadshow
    Yahoo Finance reported the filing could come as soon as Friday
    Reuters reported the roadshow was planned for the week of Nov 9
    For a Nov 9 start, the S-1 had to be public by Oct 25
    EDGAR shows no public S-1 as of Sunday
    A filing on Monday still allows a roadshow from Nov 10
    A filing on Oct 30 means no roadshow before Nov 14, a Saturday
    Nov 26 is Thanksgiving
    Polymarket, Friday morning vs now
    ＞ Nov 20: 58% → 22.5%
    ＞ Nov 25: 68.5% → 53%
    ＞ Nov 30: 73% → 53%
    ＞ Dec 31: 84.5% → 75.5%
    Nov 20 and Nov 25 are thin, $20,000 and $11,000 traded
    Nov 30 has $472,000 traded
    These markets resolve when shares start trading
    Does the S-1 land next week, or does the IPO slide into December?
    • 21 replies
    • 3 reposts
    • 30 likes
    • 1.3K views
13. 

    Polyfactual Oct 24, 2026 · 11:41
    🇺🇸 Trade US midterm markets on Banana Predict 🍌
    All the polls, odds, and analytics you need to stay ahead.
    Trade smarter. Predict better.
    • 13 replies
    • 10 reposts
    • 33 likes
    • 4.2K views
14. 

    Polyfactual Oct 23, 2026 · 16:59
    Republicans need two upsets to keep the Senate
    Texas is tied in the new Fox News poll
    Democrats are 67.5% to win the Senate on @trylimitless
    They're also 67.5% to win both chambers
    Democrats are 92.5% to win the House
    A Democratic Senate with a Republican House is under 2%
    So the midterms come down to the Senate
    Democrats need to flip 4 Republican seats and hold all 13 seats they're defending
    Markets favor them in 5 Republican seats: North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Texas
    That leaves room for one miss
    Fox has Talarico and Paxton at 49% each in the poll released Wednesday
    In September, Fox had Talarico up 51 to 49
    Talarico is still at 66.5% on @trylimitless
    Lose Texas, and Democrats need all four other seats on that list
    Or an upset in a race like Iowa or Kansas, where they trail
    They'd also need to hold Michigan
    It's the weakest of the 13
    Is Texas the seat that decides the Senate, or the one Democrats can afford to lose?

    

    1 more in this thread

    Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
    https://limitless.exchange/markets/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-1785851201875?r=POLYFACTUAL
    Texas Senate Election Winner
    https://limitless.exchange/markets/texas-senate-election-winner-1791981073791?r=POLYFACTUAL
    • 17 replies
    • 3 reposts
    • 43 likes
    • 2.5K views
15. 

    Polyfactual Oct 22, 2026 · 20:20
    We covered ethereum:0x6c5ba91642f10282b576d91922ae6448c9d52f4e on the Polyfactual stream 2 weeks ago, it's already up over 150%
    We think private AI will be a huge narrative in the coming cycle.
    NEAR and Venice AI already have the Phala stack integrated.
    We broke down the mechanics and use cases behind Phala and how it's bullish momentum could continue.
    • 3 replies
    • 5 reposts
    • 19 likes
    • 932 views
16. 

    Polyfactual Oct 12, 2026 · 14:04
    Democrats are 63.5% to win the Senate on Polymarket
    If a Hormuz deal lands before the vote, that drops to 57.6%
    On Oct 8 Trump wrote that "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections"
    On Oct 11 Iran called the US response to its Hormuz proposal "insufficient"
    Messages between the two sides still go through mediators
    A new market pairs a US-Iran Hormuz deal by Nov 2 with Senate control
    Deal plus a Republican Senate trades at about 7.1¢, deal plus a Democratic Senate at about 9.7¢
    That split is where the 57.6% comes from
    A sister market with an Oct 23 deadline puts Democrats at about 56% if a deal comes
    Both books put Democrats 6 to 7 points lower in a world with a deal
    The price doesn't say why
    Traders may read a deal as a win Trump takes into the vote, or expect it to arrive with other good news for Republicans
    Both markets opened on Oct 11, so these prices can still move a lot
    Would a Hormuz deal before the election change how you see the Senate?

    
    • 8 replies
    • 1 reposts
    • 16 likes
    • 2K views

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