Prediction Index
Traders use Prediction Index to compare 314 prediction market venues and tools, with daily volume for each one.
Prediction Index: Prediction Market Directory, Rankings & Research
What is Prediction Index?
Prediction Index is a free directory and research hub that tracks 314 prediction market projects across Polymarket, Kalshi and 35 other chains, with daily volume data, a Chaos Index and weekly reports.
Ready to try Prediction Index?
Open the official site and get started in a few clicks.
Prediction Index Overview
Prediction Index is a free web directory that tracks who is building in prediction markets. The site listed 314 projects on 11 November 2026, split into 145 trading venues and 169 tools built around them. You can sort the table by volume, chain, outcome type or status, and every row has a Visit button that sends you to the project itself. Nothing trades on the site.
It is for people who want the map rather than one destination: traders hunting for a venue with real liquidity, or researchers who care about the long tail instead of the same two names. Polymarket and Kalshi hold most of the volume and the directory shows that plainly. It also shows the other 300 projects, which is the part I find more useful.
The Chaos Index is the piece with no real rival. It reads 72 geopolitics contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi and turns them into two gauges, Escalation and Peace. Then it asks three AI models the same questions with prices hidden and compares their answers to the money. The gap between them is the Chaos Spread. On 11 November 2026 the machines sat 5.5 points calmer than the market. Whether that means anything is up to you, but it is a strange thing to publish for free.
Volume numbers use trade volume, not notional, so they count what traders paid rather than face value. That matters when you compare a $1 contract venue to a sportsbook. The team refreshes the big venues daily and puts out weekly volume reports plus an annual report with essays from builders.
What sets it apart is the long tail and the honesty about it. About 94 of the 314 entries sit on a waitlist and 22 are inactive, and the site says so on the row. A growth marketer who contacted 144 listed venues in May 2026 found roughly 15 percent still active. The directory does not hide that. Check a project before you use it.
Prediction Index Key features
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Ecosystem directory
A sortable table of 314 prediction market venues and tools, split into two tabs. Each row shows volume, chain, status and outcome types.
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Filters and search
Narrow the table by outcome type, tool type, status or a keyword. A newly added toggle shows what went up recently.
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Project profiles
Every listing has its own page with an About blurb, chain, mechanism and topic tags. A Visit button sends you to the project itself.
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Volume tracking
The site shows trade volume, meaning what traders actually paid, not notional value at a dollar a contract. Numbers refresh daily for the ten biggest venues.
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Chaos Index
Two gauges, Escalation and Peace, built from 72 live geopolitics contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi. Markets are weighted by liquidity so one crisis cannot take over the reading.
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Machine versus money
GPT, Claude and Grok answer the same geopolitics questions with prices hidden, and the site compares their median to the market odds. The gap is called the Chaos Spread.
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Weekly volume reports
Regular write-ups on how much money moved through prediction markets, including how much sits outside Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Annual report
A yearly report on the site with a PDF download, plus essays from builders on market design, liquidity and oracles. The March 2026 edition covered 268 projects and over $120B in volume.
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Ecosystem map
A visual map of the industry made with Tom Piskule of Token Ventures, covering market engines, terminals, DeFi, AI agents and sportsbooks.
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Add a project
Builders can submit their project through a button on the site, or message the team to get volume numbers listed or corrected.
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Research Desk
A subscription button on the homepage for the team's written research.
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Meetups and events
The team runs a prediction markets symposium and lists upcoming meetups. The next one has no date or city yet.
Prediction Index Fees
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Free to use Prediction Index is a free web directory, and the research notes list no fees, subscriptions or paid tiers for browsing, listing or reading the research.
How to use Prediction Index
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Open the site
Load Prediction Index in a desktop browser. There is nothing to install and no wallet to connect, because browsing is free.
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Choose a table
The Ecosystem page splits into Prediction Markets with 145 venues and Ecosystem with 169 tools built around them. Start with the side that matches what you came for.
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Filter the list
Use the Outcome Type, Type and Status filters, or type a name into the search box. The Newly Added toggle shows rows that went up recently.
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Read the volume figures
Total Volume means trade volume, so it counts what traders paid rather than notional at a dollar a contract. The bigger venues refresh daily.
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Open a project page
Click a row to see the chain, status, about blurb, market mechanism and topic tags. The Visit button takes you off the site to the project itself, since no trading happens here.
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Check the status label
Rows read live, waitlist or inactive, and those labels can lag behind reality. One growth marketer who contacted 144 venues in May 2026 found about 15 percent still active, so look at the project's own site before you spend time on it.
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Read the Chaos Index
Escalation and Peace work as a pair, built from geopolitics contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi. Check the date on the AI comparison, because the last machine run shown is 29 September 2026 even though the odds themselves still load.
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Submit a missing project
Builders can send a project in through the Add Project button. You can also message the team to get volume numbers added or corrected.
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Subscribe to the Research Desk
The button on the homepage signs you up for weekly volume reports, and the annual report is free to read or download. Updates slowed after 6 October 2026, so do not expect the near weekly pace from the summer.
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Ignore any token
Prediction Index has no coin and no points program. Treat anything trading under its name as fake unless the team says otherwise.
Prediction Index Demo video
Prediction Index Screenshots
Prediction Index User Reviews
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wanted to track prediction market projects, aggregators & the markets with the most volume / liquidity
View on X ↗
found @predictionindex 4 months ago
every X account is listed and live data pulled from polymarket
if you're looking to build a PM trading bot, recommend checking it out -
$79.1b traded across prediction markets and even after stripping out kalshi + polymarket, there's still $21.8b flowing through the long tail.
View on X ↗
prediction markets are hitting an interesting phase right now.
@predictionindex is doing amazing work highlighting this. -
268 projects, $120B+ in cumulative volume, and 115k+ live markets across the prediction market ecosystem
View on X ↗
Really impressive work by the @predictionindex team in building out the Prediction Index Annual Report 🫡
Prediction Index Review
Pros
- You can browse the whole directory without a wallet or an account.
- The table splits 145 venues from 169 tools and filters on chain, status and outcome type.
- Volume for Polymarket, Kalshi and nine other venues refreshes every day.
- The Chaos Index puts market odds and three AI models next to each other on the same geopolitics questions.
- Weekly volume reports show how much trades outside Kalshi and Polymarket, which most trackers leave out.
- Builders can submit their own project and ask the team to fix a volume figure.
- The Annual Report collects twelve builder essays and comes as a PDF you can download.
Cons
- The Chaos Index machine comparison was last refreshed on 29 September 2026, so the AI versus market numbers are weeks old.
- The Markets tab, volume spike alerts and bookmarks from the first version are gone in v2.
- The last original update went out on 6 October 2026, and the weekly listing threads stopped in June.
- The homepage volume counter does not match the venue table rows, so the headline total is only a rough figure.
- About 94 of the 314 listed entries were still on a waitlist, and status labels lag behind reality.
- There is no mobile app, browser extension or Discord, only the website.
- The founder now spends her time on Over, a separate trading product, which leaves the directory with less attention.
- No company name, legal entity or funding round for the site turned up.
Our verdict
Prediction Index (PM Index) is the best free map of the prediction market world I've found: 314 projects in a sortable table, daily volume for the major venues, and a Chaos Index that reads geopolitics markets as two gauges, escalation and peace. The upkeep is where it slips. The Chaos Index machine comparison hasn't refreshed since 29 September, the weekly listing threads stopped in June, and the Markets tab with volume spike alerts is gone from v2, so check each project before you trust its status label. For bot builders and researchers who want the long tail of venues and tools, bookmark it. If you need live alerts or a trading terminal, this isn't one.
Is Prediction Index safe & legit?
Prediction Index is a free prediction market directory built by Lili (lililashka), a founder with a background in cybersecurity law and DeFi, and people in the Polymarket community use it daily, with researchers and builders praising its long tail volume tracking. No red flags are known: it holds no funds, asks for no wallet connection, and has no token, so any coin using the Prediction Index name is fake. The risks are small ones, like stale data (the Chaos Index AI comparison last refreshed 29 September 2026) and listing labels that can lag behind reality, so check each project yourself before using it.
X account intel @predictionindex
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Based in United States
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Joined X July 2025 1 year ago
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Username changes 3 renames last on Aug 28, 2025
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Signup source Germany App Store
Public profile signals from X. Use as one input alongside other due-diligence.
Security scan checked Nov 11, 2026
- Google Web Risk Not flagged
- MetaMask Not flagged
- Phantom Not flagged
- ScamSniffer Not flagged
- EtherAddressLookup Not flagged
- Keplr Wallet Not flagged
Domain predictionindex.xyz checked against Google's lists of unsafe sites and public crypto wallet blacklists.
This is an automated check, not a security audit. The summary is drafted from the project's own pages and public posts, and the domain is looked up on public blocklists. Nothing here is financial advice: only put in money you can afford to lose. How we review listings
Prediction Index FAQ
Is Prediction Index free?
Can I trade on the site?
What is the Chaos Index?
How do I get my project listed?
Who runs it, and is it still active?
Prediction Index Updates
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We heard prop trading for stock prediction markets is coming soon too 👀- 3 likes
- 320 views
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Prediction markets went from under $5B to over $45B in monthly volume in less than a year.
PredictionIndex now listing over $164B in total reported volume across the top five platforms alone.
Bullish about the next quarter
Check 👉 https://predictionindex.xyz/ecosystem- 2 replies
- 5 likes
- 527 views
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we love seeing creative takes on prediction market mechanics!
- 6 replies
- 12 likes
- 938 views
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vintage 100x leverage
- 4 replies
- 1 reposts
- 17 likes
- 683 views
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Waves of new projects has launched over the past few weeks. New listings dropping soon 🔥🔥🔥
- 4 likes
- 428 views
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Bug fixed: Volume numbers are now live again on the Prediction Index ecosystem table. This will be refreshed daily on https://predictionindex.xyz/ecosystem
We show trade volume instead of notional.
Notional counts every contract at $1 face value (so when a trader buys one contract at 40cent, it counts as $1). Trade volume counts what people actually paid and trade on the platform.
Daily check for @Polymarket @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @0xProbable @SX_Bet @xomarket @MyriadMarkets @Overtime_io @predofficial @seerdexmarkets
Building a prediction market and want your numbers listed or updated? send us a dm!
- 4 likes
- 531 views
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Introducing Chaos Index:
Our first index is a read on war and peace in geopolitics, built from live prediction markets on @Polymarket and @Kalshi.
*If you already know how other indices work, skip this paragraph. An index is a single number that turns a messy system into an easy format that you can compare across time. The famous Gini coefficient takes a whole income distribution and turns it into one number for inequality, so economists can track whether a country is getting more or less equal without rereading every bracket. VIX does the same for options, one number for expected volatility. As the industry gets more mature, prediction markets will need that same kind of consolidation.
We build Chaos Index from 72 live contracts. There are two simple gauges:
Escalation: how likely things are to get worse
Peace: how likely things are to get better
Read them as a pair. If peace falls faster than escalation, the world is freezing. If both go up, markets see more fighting and more chance of a deal.
Another thing to notice is the spread between machine and money. We call it the Chaos Spread. It tells you whether the machines see more danger or more calm than the money. Positive means the models are more worried. Negative means they are calmer. Over time you can see who was more right.
We think this is interesting because most trades today are already a mix of human judgment and machine help. So the blind machine line is the only way for us to see what the models think on their own, and how much machine opinion is already sitting inside the market price.
A bit on methodology.
We take live binary geopolitics markets on @Polymarket and @Kalshi, then label and weight them by liquidity, with caps so one crisis cannot dominate the whole index. We chain the history so new listings or resolutions do not contaminate the dataset. Then we ask three frontier AI models (GPT, Claude, and Grok) the same questions with no access to market prices. Each model only gets the question, today’s date, and the official resolution rules.
Chaos Index is our Index 01. We hope it will be useful and welcome and feedback from the community.
Check it out daily at http://predictionindex.xyz/chaos-index
- 3 replies
- 2 reposts
- 15 likes
- 1.6K views
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BREAKING: OUTCOME LAUNCHES FIRST MARKETS ON @Hyperliquidx WITH $1,000,000 IN REWARDS.
- 219 replies
- 547 reposts
- 2.9K likes
- 701.3K views
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With news that the CIA chief is visiting Moscow, our Chaos Index feels more relevant than ever.
We’re updating the dataset and analysis across 57 live markets from @Polymarket and @Kalshi, covering everything in the horizon. The index compares what the money believes with what frontier AI models predict, then measures the gap between them.
Methodology and fresh analysis drop tomorrow. 🔥
- 1 reposts
- 3 likes
- 426 views
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we’re building the world index, powered by prediction markets.
- 6 replies
- 1 reposts
- 14 likes
- 1.5K views
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Prediction Index v2 is live 🪶
We've been mapping the prediction market ecosystem for a while now. 315+ projects, $110B in volume tracked. As the market matures, we think the volume story is well told. The more interesting story is calibration, or how well these markets actually read the world.
@Kalshi studied 2M+ of its own markets and found events priced at 70% happen about 70% of the time. @Polymarket's published accuracy runs 90% a month out (98.5% four hours out).
In v2, we turn PredictionIndex into a prediction market research desk and AI-native index provider. Our indices read what the crowd is pricing and ask frontier AI the same questions. We cover geopolitics, finance, compute, gaming, sports and culture.
In the coming weeks, for traders, expect research, video, contrarian views, plus the takes we'll probably regret later. For builders, we'll publish deep dives into a handful of projects we think are worth watching closely.
All of it, in your inbox 👉 https://predictionindex.xyz
ps. sound on for teaser 🔥- 14 replies
- 10 reposts
- 43 likes
- 4.7K views
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Applications are now open for the Polymarket Science Fellowship.
12 one-year fellowships of $10,000 each supporting independent research using Polymarket market data, spanning market structure, market integrity, AI, policy & economics, and crypto & decentralization.
https://institute.polymarket.com/fellowship- 22 replies
- 32 reposts
- 214 likes
- 39.1K views
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There’s aura in quietly building
Great project from @saurav_tweets
- 2 replies
- 2 likes
- 899 views
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Introducing the Parimutuel Market Maker (PMM).
A new trading mechanism designed specifically for permissionless prediction markets.
Only possible on Solana.- 163 replies
- 83 reposts
- 594 likes
- 145.3K views
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We're launching Polymarket Institutional Research: original research built on our markets, direct from the Institutional Desk.
Our first issue looked at Anthropic's valuation strip and whether the right tail is underpriced. Last week, we turned to the Strait of Hormuz, where traders price a 62% chance of normalization by the end of the year, and what that implies for the spread between Brent and WTI.
New issues every week. Read both and sign up for access to all future issues below 👇
https://poly.market/DiwtiVD- 58 replies
- 70 reposts
- 562 likes
- 105.8K views
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Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips.
Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices.
Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery.
Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities.
The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market.
Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate.
The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.
- 200 replies
- 227 reposts
- 2K likes
- 1.3M views
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Kalshi has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power, joining the ranks of exchange and index operators attempting to build markets around the commodity powering artificial intelligence. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-14/kalshi-ramps-up-effort-to-build-markets-for-ai-computing-power?taid=6a564353c9c093000174be15&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
- 7 replies
- 8 reposts
- 51 likes
- 66.1K views
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never a better, easier time to raise.
let's go https://star.fun/scout/predictionindex- 2 replies
- 4 likes
- 928 views
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something exciting is coming!
- 3 replies
- 4 likes
- 574 views
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