Arbitrage Data & APIs

polymm

Open-source Python market-making and arbitrage bot for Polymarket sports, MIT-licensed, with a public on-chain track record you can verify.

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Polymm: Open Source Polymarket Sports Arbitrage and Market Making Bot

What is polymm?

Polymm is an open source Python bot for market making and arbitrage on Polymarket sports markets, built from the real code behind a public wallet that earned roughly five thousand dollars in verified on chain profit.

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polymm Overview

Polymm is an open source Python bot for market making and arbitrage on Polymarket sports and esports markets. It pulls sportsbook odds, removes the vig to estimate fair probability, and posts limit orders one cent above the best bid when the edge clears a set threshold (5 to 7 percent by default). When one side fills, it buys the opposite outcome. If the share pair costs less than one dollar combined, the profit is locked in whatever the match result.

About ten async processes run at once. Some fetch odds into a Supabase database, others scan for edges or track fills over WebSocket. A monitor cancels resting orders the moment an edge disappears, which keeps the bot away from stale quotes. Failed hedges leave directional positions, and those lost money in practice even with positive expected value at entry.

This suits traders and developers who already read sportsbook odds and Polymarket order books and can run their own setup: a paid odds API key and a funded wallet. Everything settles in USDC on Polygon, and makers pay zero trading fees on Polymarket. If you want a bot you start once and forget, keep looking. I would treat Polymm as a research base rather than an income stream.

What sets it apart is proof. The code ran a public Polymarket wallet that earned roughly $5,000 in net profit over several months, with every trade on chain for anyone to verify. Four standalone analytics scripts break down any public wallet into arbitrage profit versus directional losses, month by month. Its operator retired the live version after faster competition ate the edge, so the real value today is a working prediction market arbitrage system you can study and rebuild. Working code with an auditable track record is rare in this space.

polymm Key features

  • De-vigged Odds

    The bot converts sportsbook decimal or American odds into implied probabilities and removes the bookmaker margin so both sides sum to 100 percent. This fair probability anchors every later edge calculation, and its accuracy depends on how fresh your odds source is.

  • Edge Scanning and Quoting

    The scanner compares fair probability against Polymarket's best bid and ask. When the edge clears your threshold (default around 5 to 7 percent), the bot posts a limit order one cent above the best bid and lets it rest.

  • Automatic Hedging

    After a fill on one side, the execution layer buys the opposite outcome to keep the combined cost under one dollar per share pair. A completed pair locks in profit whatever the match result, while a failed hedge leaves a directional position with positive expected value but real exposure.

  • Reactive Order Cancellation

    A monitoring layer watches fair value and order book conditions for changes. When an open order stops meeting the edge requirement, the system cancels it before a stale fill hits.

  • Position State Tracking

    All odds, fills, and open positions persist in Supabase. A reactive event system keeps match level state consistent across roughly ten concurrent loops, which supports accurate accounting of residual positions.

  • Wallet Analytics Suite

    Four standalone scripts split any public Polymarket wallet into arbitrage versus directional results, monthly realized profit and loss, open positions by market, and favorite versus underdog performance. They need only a public funder address and run without the live bot.

  • Modular Architecture

    Separate layers handle odds services, core math, scanning, execution, monitoring, WebSocket connections, and state. You can swap the odds source, change sizing rules, or speed up execution without rewriting the whole system.

polymm Fees

  • Bot usage fee Polymm charges no usage fees because the code is fully open source under the MIT license.
  • Maker fee Makers on Polymarket currently pay zero trading fees.
  • Taker fee Takers pay a category dependent fee calculated from share quantity, price, and a rate that peaks near fifty percent probability, with sports markets at a lower rate than crypto markets.
  • External service costs Operators pay for a paid the odds api subscription and Supabase hosting out of pocket.
  • Polygon gas Gas costs on Polygon typically run a few cents or less per transaction depending on network conditions.

How to use polymm

  1. Clone and install dependencies

    Clone the GitHub repository to your machine, then run pip install -r requirements.txt to install the Python packages the bot needs.

  2. Configure your environment credentials

    Copy the example environment file and fill in your Polymarket private key or wallet credentials, a paid the odds api key, and your Supabase project credentials.

  3. Create the database tables

    Run the SQL schemas from the repository against your Supabase project. The bot stores odds, fills, and open positions in these tables.

  4. Start the main process

    Launch the bot with python -m src.main. The orchestrator starts the concurrent loops that fetch odds, scan for edges, place orders, and react to fills.

  5. Start small and monitor

    Keep the default small share size and watch the bot's activity closely. Raise position limits only after you trust how it behaves with real money.

  6. Run the analytics scripts

    Point the four analytics scripts at any public Polymarket wallet address to check past results and see how much risk came from unhedged positions.

polymm Review

Pros

  • It is free and open source under the MIT license.
  • Every historical trade is verifiable on chain at the public wallet address.
  • The code comes from a real bot that made about five thousand dollars in net profit.
  • The bot removes bookmaker margin from sportsbook odds to estimate fair probabilities.
  • It cancels resting orders automatically when the edge disappears.
  • Analytics scripts split arbitrage profit from directional losses for any public wallet.
  • The modular design lets developers swap the odds source or sizing rules without a full rewrite.
  • Successful hedges lock in profit regardless of the match outcome.
  • The bot itself charges no usage fees.

Cons

  • The author retired the bot after competition and slower execution made it unprofitable, and the code gets no updates.
  • The private odds scrapers that powered the original edge are not included in the release.
  • Live trading requires a paid The Odds API subscription plus Supabase setup and database management.
  • Failed hedges leave directional positions, and those residuals caused real losses in the original run.
  • No third party audit exists, and the AI assisted code needs a careful review before it touches real funds.
  • There is no ready to run interface, so casual users without Python and infrastructure skills get little value.
  • Private key and wallet security fall entirely on the operator.
  • Tighter spreads and faster competitors have shrunk the opportunity set since the five thousand dollar profit run.

Our verdict

Polymm is an open source Python bot for market making on Polymarket sports markets: it strips the bookmaker margin from sportsbook odds, then posts limit orders when a real edge appears and hedges fills to lock in arbitrage profit. The receipts are real, a public wallet shows about $5,000 net profit over several months, and every trade sits on chain where you can check it yourself, which I respect. The included analytics scripts, which split locked arbitrage gains from directional losses for any public wallet, are a genuine bonus. The catch is that the author retired the bot after faster competitors ate the edge, so what you download is a foundation rather than an earner, and even the original run lost real money on unhedged residual positions. It fits developers who already read order books and do not mind running their own Supabase database and a paid odds API to build something faster; anyone hoping for a money printer with a Telegram button should walk away.

Is polymm safe & legit?

Polymm looks legit. The developer, a data engineer known as kachence (Kacho), released the code as open source under the MIT license and backed his claims with a public Polymarket wallet showing roughly five thousand dollars in verified profit, plus honest write ups at kacho.io about why the strategy later lost money. No scam reports or hidden red flags are known, but treat it as experimental: no third party audit exists, the AI assisted code can contain bugs, and you alone are responsible for your private keys.

X account intel @kachoio

  • Based in Bulgaria
  • Joined X May 2025 1 year ago
  • Username changes 4 renames last on Jun 4, 2026
  • Signup source Bulgaria App Store

Public profile signals from X. Use as one input alongside other due-diligence.

Wallet blacklist scan checked Aug 16, 2026

  • MetaMask Not flagged
  • Phantom Not flagged
  • ScamSniffer Not flagged
  • EtherAddressLookup Not flagged
  • Keplr Wallet Not flagged

Domain github.com checked against public crypto wallet blacklists.

polymm Updates

  1. polymm logo
    Kacho
    Now every link you add to the prediction-almanac awesome list repo is automatically included in my blog on a page I just created.
    If you want to list anything related to prediction markets, create a PR and I will have a look.
    • 23 views
  2. polymm logo
    Kacho
    I started being a bit more active on X and it seems to be paying off - I just got my 100th follower now! Already connecting with others who are passionate about prediction markets, which is great.
    • 2 likes
    • 39 views
  3. polymm logo
    Kacho
    While on holiday I check my positions on my MM bot and see a $1k non-hedged position 😱
    A silent bug in my code let this happen. Thankfully, I picked it up before any serious damage was done, costing me $85 to exist the position instantly.
    • 1 replies
    • 1 likes
    • 69 views
  4. polymm logo
    Kacho
    Up/down polymarkets just got upgraded.
    Trade 5m, 15m, & hourly crypto up/downs with time-weighted average pricing (TWAP).
    To celebrate, we're giving away $1M in liquidity rewards across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, BNB, & DOGE polymarkets.
    • 150 replies
    • 122 reposts
    • 649 likes
    • 448.5K views
  5. polymm logo
    Kacho
    A pretty stale week for my sports bot. Fewer arbs and more adverse fills than usual.
    I improved odds freshness from 5 min to 15 seconds now. Also expanded to more sports (UFC, soccer) and markets (over/under, handicap, etc).
    Let's see how that goes.
    • 1 likes
    • 142 views
  6. polymm logo
    Kacho
    A Polymarket sports market-making and arbitrage bot in Python. Made me about $5k in Jan-Apr. Certainly not as competitive now, but a good starting point.
    https://github.com/kachence/polymm
    • 2 likes
    • 190 views
  7. polymm logo
    Kacho
    To protect market integrity in our crypto up/down markets, we're updating how these markets resolve.
    What's changing: Starting August 7th at 12 am UTC, affected markets will no longer resolve based on a single snapshot-in-time price. Instead, resolution will use a time-weighted average price (TWAP), with the averaging window scaled to the length of the market (detailed below).
    Liquidity rewards: To support liquidity through this transition, we're adding $1M in liquidity rewards across all impacted markets through the month of August.
    Market Details:
    - All crypto 5 min markets: 30 second TWAP
    - All crypto 15 min markets: 60 second TWAP
    - All crypto 4 hour markets: 60 second TWAP
    Developer access: Chainlink TWAP testnet feeds are available now. Mainnet feeds and Polymarket RTDS delivery are scheduled to launch on August 4, 2026. At launch, developers can consume TWAP prices directly through Chainlink Data Streams or through Polymarket’s public Real-Time Data Streaming WebSocket. Integration instructions, feed IDs, SDK examples, and testing guidance are available here:
    http://docs.polymarket.com/market-data/chainlink-twap
    • 59 replies
    • 83 reposts
    • 244 likes
    • 119.1K views
  8. polymm logo
    Kacho
    Last week I open-sourced my Polymarket bot. A few people were annoyed I gave away one that had "already lost its edge".
    They're not wrong that it had. The Rust rewrite I actually run made ~$650 last month, same public wallet. I'm keeping that one.
    2 more in this thread
    Two months blogging this in the open: ~4,300 visits, ~20 subscribers, $0 made. Worth it anyway - a Redditor pointed me to a dataset I now backtest every idea on.
    Full write-up (the Rust numbers, the weather bot, why the good one stays private):
    http://kacho.io/everything-and-nothing
    • 5 replies
    • 3 likes
    • 402 views
  9. polymm logo
    Kacho
    I open-sourced my Polymarket bot. The one that made ~$5k, wallet public the whole time.
    Most "I built a Polymarket bot" repos are a README and a screenshot. This one has receipts you can reconcile - and it also stopped making money, which is exactly why I can give it away.
    2 more in this thread
    Clone it and flip it on as-is and you'll mostly feed faster bots. But bring fresher odds and quicker execution - the two things that beat me - and there's a real bot in here.
    Read, learn, improve. The next drop is the Rust rewrite going live in public.
    Repo (MIT) and the full write-up on why giving it away costs me nothing:
    http://kacho.io/open-sourcing-my-polymarket-bot
    • 3 replies
    • 3 likes
    • 394 views

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